While I am on a roll with logging e-mail exchanges(!), I might as well record this reply that I just sent to an American friend who was asking how I think our election will go in 4 days time.

Hi Bill!

I think that it is more likely that John Howard will be returned but it will probably be very, very close.

State politics in Australia are volatile compared to the Federal level - personality issues and "parish pump" issues are much more important. In contrast, the general rule for the last 40 years federally is that governments are *not* thrown out unless they are in disarray or the economy is in deep trouble. But the Australian economy has performed incredibly well under Howard's stewardship - we survived a regional financial crisis and recessions in our major trading partners with hardly a wrinkle in 8 years of virtually continuous economic boom. Interest rates and unemployment are at 30 year lows and inflation is close to insignificant while real incomes have increased markedly. The good times are rolling for John and Jill Average Citizen.

Having said that, there is a widespread tiredness and boredom (complacency?) with the Howard Government, while the Opposition Leader, Mark Latham, is an "interesting" politician who has really shaken things up. Underlying that, though, there is this widespread suspicion that he is flaky, impetuous and likely to make ill-considered policy decisions on the run. I think that the usually cautious Howard will prevail but maybe with a reduced margin.

The funny thing is that, like George Bush, John Howard has become a disappointment to old-school fiscal conservatives. During this election campaign, he has blown billions of a very large budget surplus (mainly built from company taxes harvested from the booming economy) on crass election "give-aways" instead of retiring more government debt, delivering substantial tax cuts, investing in national productive infrastructure or paving the way for fundamental tax and welfare reforms for the future - all of which many of his natural constituency would prefer to see instead of "spending like a drunken sailor on shore leave", as the pundits put it!

So that is my take - many on the leftish of centre all the way over to far right of Australian politics are disappointed in Howard and thoroughly tired of him but won't chance Latham under the circumstances. If the economy wasn't doing so good, Howard would be out on his ear by a landslide.

Mind you, it is likely to be very close and a Latham win is perfectly possible. It is just that it would break what has proven to be a reliable pattern for the last 40 years.

It looks like the US contest is evening up - what do you reckon? Funny enough, if Howard lost in Australia, I reckon that would have implications for Bush. How's that for the tail wagging the dog for a change? I bet Tony Blair is watching nervously, too!

Ah well, now I have made my final prediction, it's only a question of waiting to see if I am proved wrong yet again!